For the week ending December 12, global oilseed markets mostly declined, with Chicago soybean futures falling to a six-week low. This was primarily driven by concerns that China's purchasing pace might fall short of the scale anticipated by U.S. officials, coupled with expectations that Brazil's massive upcoming soybean harvest would squeeze export opportunities for U.S. soybeans.
On December 12, January soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at $10.7675 per bushel, down 2.6% from a week earlier. The average spot price for December-delivery No. 1 yellow soybeans in the U.S. Gulf was $11.5025 per bushel, also down 2.6%.
Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season has been revised upward to 422 million metric tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month projected global soybean production for the 2025/26 marketing year at 422.54 million metric tons, an increase of 790,000 metric tons from the November estimate but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year. Global soybean crush was revised upward from 364.98 million metric tons to 365.24 million metric tons, while exports were slightly lowered from 187.97 million metric tons to 187.70 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 380,000 metric tons to 122.37 million metric tons, falling short of market expectations of 122.41 million metric tons and representing a 0.7% decrease from the 2024/25 marketing year. The projected stock-to-use ratio stands at 20.07%, compared to last month's forecast of 20% and the previous year's level of 20.62%.
This month's South American soybean production forecasts remain unchanged, with Brazil's output projected at a record 175 million tons. Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, while Paraguay's output is forecast at 11 million tons. China's soybean supply and demand data remain unchanged, with imports for the 2025/26 marketing year estimated at 112 million tons—a 3.7% increase from the previous year's 108 million tons.
Global rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season has been further revised upward to 95.27 million metric tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 marketing year by 3 million metric tons to 95.27 million tons in its December supply and demand report, representing a 10.8% increase from the previous year's 86 million tons. This month's upward revision in global output primarily reflects an increase of 2 million tons in Canada's production estimate to 22 million tons. Global rapeseed trade was revised upward by 900,000 tons to 18.4 million tons, though this represents a 6.9% decrease from the previous year. The forecast for global crush volume was raised by 1.56 million tons to 87.8 million tons, a 4.1% year-on-year increase. Global ending stocks are projected at 12.5 million tons, an upward revision of 1.16 million tons from last month's forecast and a 26.9% increase year-on-year. The global rapeseed inventory-to-use ratio is projected at 11.77%, higher than last month's forecast of 10.9% and also above the previous year's 9.45%.
Argentina cuts export taxes on soybeans and grains
On Friday, the Argentine government confirmed reductions in export taxes on soybeans and grains. The soybean export tax was lowered from 26% to 24%, while the rates for soybean meal and soybean oil decreased from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat and barley were lowered from 9.5% to 7.5%, while those on corn and sorghum decreased from 9.5% to 8.5%. Sunflower seed export taxes will also be reduced from 5.5% to 4.5%.
China's purchasing pace has accelerated slightly, while U.S. export sales remain generally sluggish.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed this week that private exporters reported sales of 664,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, bringing total confirmed soybean sales to China since October 30 to 3.38 million metric tons. Analysts at StoneX estimate China's purchases at 7 million metric tons, equivalent to 58% of its 12-million-metric-ton procurement target. A week ago, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated China would complete its purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of February 2026. Given the current premium of U.S. soybean prices over South American soybeans, coupled with Brazil's massive soybean harvest set to hit the market in weeks, this suggests U.S. soybean sales could face a steep decline once Chinese buying dries up.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supplemental export sales report shows that for the week ending November 13, net U.S. soybean sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 695,598 metric tons, up from 510,554 metric tons a week earlier and near the lower end of market expectations. Year-to-date sales are down 41.1% compared to the same period last year, while the USDA projects full-year exports to decline by 13.1%.
According to IGC export quotations, Argentine soybeans are the cheapest. As of December 11, Argentine Upper River soybeans were quoted at $424 per ton, U.S. Gulf soybeans at $438 per ton, and Brazilian Paranaguá port soybeans at $440 per ton.
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On December 12, January soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at $10.7675 per bushel, down 2.6% from a week earlier. The average spot price for December-delivery No. 1 yellow soybeans in the U.S. Gulf was $11.5025 per bushel, also down 2.6%.
Global soybean production for the 2025/26 season has been revised upward to 422 million metric tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month projected global soybean production for the 2025/26 marketing year at 422.54 million metric tons, an increase of 790,000 metric tons from the November estimate but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year. Global soybean crush was revised upward from 364.98 million metric tons to 365.24 million metric tons, while exports were slightly lowered from 187.97 million metric tons to 187.70 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks were raised by 380,000 metric tons to 122.37 million metric tons, falling short of market expectations of 122.41 million metric tons and representing a 0.7% decrease from the 2024/25 marketing year. The projected stock-to-use ratio stands at 20.07%, compared to last month's forecast of 20% and the previous year's level of 20.62%.
This month's South American soybean production forecasts remain unchanged, with Brazil's output projected at a record 175 million tons. Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, while Paraguay's output is forecast at 11 million tons. China's soybean supply and demand data remain unchanged, with imports for the 2025/26 marketing year estimated at 112 million tons—a 3.7% increase from the previous year's 108 million tons.
Global rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season has been further revised upward to 95.27 million metric tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 marketing year by 3 million metric tons to 95.27 million tons in its December supply and demand report, representing a 10.8% increase from the previous year's 86 million tons. This month's upward revision in global output primarily reflects an increase of 2 million tons in Canada's production estimate to 22 million tons. Global rapeseed trade was revised upward by 900,000 tons to 18.4 million tons, though this represents a 6.9% decrease from the previous year. The forecast for global crush volume was raised by 1.56 million tons to 87.8 million tons, a 4.1% year-on-year increase. Global ending stocks are projected at 12.5 million tons, an upward revision of 1.16 million tons from last month's forecast and a 26.9% increase year-on-year. The global rapeseed inventory-to-use ratio is projected at 11.77%, higher than last month's forecast of 10.9% and also above the previous year's 9.45%.
Argentina cuts export taxes on soybeans and grains
On Friday, the Argentine government confirmed reductions in export taxes on soybeans and grains. The soybean export tax was lowered from 26% to 24%, while the rates for soybean meal and soybean oil decreased from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat and barley were lowered from 9.5% to 7.5%, while those on corn and sorghum decreased from 9.5% to 8.5%. Sunflower seed export taxes will also be reduced from 5.5% to 4.5%.
China's purchasing pace has accelerated slightly, while U.S. export sales remain generally sluggish.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed this week that private exporters reported sales of 664,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, bringing total confirmed soybean sales to China since October 30 to 3.38 million metric tons. Analysts at StoneX estimate China's purchases at 7 million metric tons, equivalent to 58% of its 12-million-metric-ton procurement target. A week ago, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated China would complete its purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of February 2026. Given the current premium of U.S. soybean prices over South American soybeans, coupled with Brazil's massive soybean harvest set to hit the market in weeks, this suggests U.S. soybean sales could face a steep decline once Chinese buying dries up.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supplemental export sales report shows that for the week ending November 13, net U.S. soybean sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 695,598 metric tons, up from 510,554 metric tons a week earlier and near the lower end of market expectations. Year-to-date sales are down 41.1% compared to the same period last year, while the USDA projects full-year exports to decline by 13.1%.
According to IGC export quotations, Argentine soybeans are the cheapest. As of December 11, Argentine Upper River soybeans were quoted at $424 per ton, U.S. Gulf soybeans at $438 per ton, and Brazilian Paranaguá port soybeans at $440 per ton.
Disclaimer: Some articles and materials are sourced from the internet. The original sources have been clearly indicated, and all copyrights belong to the respective authors. The content is provided for reference only. If any infringement of the original author's rights occurs, please contact us promptly to request removal.